The Empirical Evidence of Oil Market Volatility and Other Macroeconomic Variables: A Study in Saudi Arabia

The purpose of this study is to investigate the evidence of oil market volatility and other macroeconomic variables in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This analysis covers 1990 to 2021, with a continuous covid period from 2019 to 2021 included in its coverage. The study relies on annual data from trustworthy sources, such as the rate of growth in the gross domestic product and the price of oil. The macroeconomic variables are collected and assessed using World Bank data development indicators. The Jarque-Bera test checked the sample's variables for normality. The regression model and second data analysis were needed to determine the variable series' stability. The series was tested for unit roots using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller (1981) test. In the regression model for data diagnosis, an ordinary least squares test was used to determine the variables' positive and long-run relationships. The findings of this study macroeconomic factors play an essential part in forecasting the economy of any country. Our data period is 1991 to 2021, which includes the Covid -19 era when the global economy was at its worst, and almost every country was seriously affected. Our data uses GDP as the dependent variable and oil prices as the independent variable, and the findings demonstrate a substantial positive association. The results also show that adequate growth and high oil exports are predicted over this period, with somewhat lower levels in 2019-21 but improving by the end of 2021. A comprehensive analysis of all macroeconomic indicators in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations is advised to be carried out. This is the first study to explore the empirical evidence of oil market volatility and other macroeconomic variables in Saudi Arabia to the best of the authors' knowledge. Furthermore, the study's results might be valuable in further extensive investigations of GPD and crude oil in GCC nations.